- Three rising intermediate class stars could force a generational MotoGP shift.
- Established names at Yamaha & Ducati face sudden lack of takers for 850cc era.
- Strategic pivot at Honda could leave high-profile development specialist on brink.
New regulations, new bikes, new riders. That’s the reality facing MotoGP teams and manufacturers in 2027. But what about the riders who are already racing this season? More precisely, with the number of grid slots still locked at 22, who looks most likely to be culled?
Of course, there is no official confirmation regarding which riders, or even teams, will be racing next campaign. But that’s a mere formality, thanks to the ongoing power struggle between Liberty Media and the teams.
However, a rookie uprising is more than likely, given the nature of the incoming changes. So, before trying to understand which riders are at risk, one must calculate the likely number of graduates from Moto2 and elsewhere.
The Moto2 pipeline
As of now, Dani Holgado is slated to move into the Gresini Ducati camp. Although officially unconfirmed, the 2024 Moto3 runner-up is one of the hottest prospects to make the jump after his sophomore year in the intermediate class.
The rumour mill speaks similarly about his CFMoto Aspar teammate David Alonso, who beat Holgado to the 2024 Moto3 title. The Colombian looks like a shoo-in at Honda alongside Fabio Quartararo, although it’s not known if Alonso will join the factory squad or the satellite LCR team.
A third incomer should be current Moto2 championship leader Manu González. He has shown consistent, if not blazing, improvement in the series since his 2021 debut, with third place in 2024 and runner-up last season.
Despite missing the cut in years past, his three years of experience racing Pirelli tires could be invaluable to any team. He also tested the Aprilia RS-GP at Aragon for Trackhouse last year.
Runaway World SBK championship leader Nicolò Bulega was also in the running for a Toprak Razgatlıoğlu-esque switch, but that move seems to have lost steam in recent weeks.
So, three new rookies for 2027 does look like the sweet spot for now. So, who will make way for them?
The MotoGP chopping block
VR46’s move to poach Fermín Aldeguer from Gresini would mean no more leeway afforded to Franco Morbidelli. The Italian has struggled for form on board the GP25. He has just one point fewer than Aldeguer, despite the latter not having raced at Buriram. As of now, there is no indication publicly that any other constructor is favouring the 31-year-old
Jorge Martín’s widely reported move to factory Yamaha to replace the outgoing Fabio Quartararo, and Ai Ogura getting his first taste of a factory ride, could result in Álex Rins being left with no takers. The six-time grand prix winner has lacked the mojo ever since his leg fracture in Mugello 2023. Patience to run out at Yamaha? Unfortunately, a betting man would say so.
The third one to potentially miss out could be a left field choice for many: Luca Marini. Yes, the former VR46 star has been instrumental in developing the RC213V. But with Quartararo likely to lead Honda’s 850cc charge in the garage and out on track, Marini’s feedback and technical expertise could be made redundant.
Johann Zarco being one of the few riders to have a contract for 2027 makes Marini’s grid exit more likely. Joan Mir potentially reuniting with Davide Brivio doesn’t help Marini’s chances either.
At least, that’s what Honda would hope if they choose not to negotiate an extension. Moreover, Honda’s 2027 incomers suggest that the Japanese giants are prioritising out-and-out proven performance and talent rather than a feedback provider.
The silly season is yet to reach fever pitch, and all the above reasoning could go out the window very soon. Which 2026 MotoGP rider do you think will survive the axe?
