Here is the forecasted qualifying order:
| Team | Fastest Qualifying time |
| Mercedes | 1:13.0 |
| Ferrari | 1:13.1 |
| Williams | 1:13.5 |
| Red Bull | 1:13.8 |
| Force India | 1:13.9 |
| Toro Rosso | 1:14.3 |
| McLaren | 1:14.5 |
| Haas | 1:14.8 |
| Sauber | 1:15.4 |
| Renault | 1:15.4 |
| Manor | 1:6.0 |
The above lap times are calculated using an average multiplier that varies for each team depending on how they ramp up engine setting etc from Friday to Saturday. It’s not always accurate because drivers can have good or bad laps of course but it’s proven exact to the nearest tenth on many occasions recently and last season.
The surprise here is Williams overtaking Red Bull. Rosberg was quoted yesterday claiming Red Bull had turned their engine right down, but Williams are the biggest improvers going from Friday to Saturday low fuel pace and Bottas came close enough to the Red Bulls.
So far in 2016 Lewis Hamilton has been forced out of qualifying or hindered in lap time on multiple occasions so expect Mercedes to run a few tenths faster than calculated if the Englishman has a fair run, but the Scuderia should rest assured that Ferrari are back to being second fastest after a difficult race last time out. The qualifying record of 1:12.2 set in 2004 looks out of reach unfortunately but given the sport has plans to increase the speed in years to come, it’s only a matter of time.
The above graph shows a rolling average of long runs in FP2. The colour of the marker indicates the tyre compound used. It follows the same coding Pirelli use. Yellow = Soft, Red = Supersoft and Purple = Ultrasoft. The overall trend shows a difference in the first 15 laps between the ultrasoft and soft tyre with Raikkonen able to keep going faster while the rest have increasing lap times.
Hamilton starts with two fast laps but backs off, maybe expecting too much too soon from the ultrasoft – important knowledge gained for Sunday.
Only the Red Bull duo used the supersoft tyre but did not look to have a wear advantage compared to the ultrasoft in the first 10 laps, at least.
Here displayed is the performance loss (or gain in Raikkonen’s case) of each driver as their stint progressed – showing clearly the difference between the soft and ultrasoft. The red supersoft doesn’t look to have an advantage on the ultrasoft in Red Bull’s case.
If we put the stints together into a race, Hamilton takes an early lead but is surpassed but Rosberg on lap three or four but Raikkonen then takes the lead on lap 12. Rosberg then looks to be falling into the clutches of even Massa so expect the ultrasoft stints in the race to be short. Maybe it would be better for Mercedes to set their fastest time in Q2 with soft tyres to begin the race with.
Moving into the midfield to see who could pick up points. Hulkenberg has a very strong stint on the red supersofts, showing that lap times can still improve after 17 on them. Kvyat and Sainz start with almost identical lap times but Sainz on the ultrasofts quickly falls to a second slower (and nearly two seconds) a lap compared to teammate Kvyat on the softs. However, Kvyat has about a second worth of fuel less than Sainz because it was his second stint of the afternoon.
A similar story occurs at Force India too, but with the Red and Purple compounds instead.
It almost seems like Hulkenberg underestimated his tyres’ performance at the start. Alonso shows some promise on the ultrasofts. Again, the difference in the Force India duo is huge.
The same pace car has been used for this comparison. Gutierrez is fast but is carrying a second less fuel.Kvyat looks close to challenging Raikkonen. But now that implies Ferrari were probably using a full tank – testing to see if they could split strategies by starting one car on the soft tyre to try and surpass Mercedes and win the race.
Anyhow, it should be a good one. Canada usually is.
