Kimi Antonelli heads to Brazil with the Formula 1 title already won, but there is plenty still to settle as the season reaches Interlagos.
The 20-year-old secured his first world championship by finishing third in Mexico, becoming F1’s youngest champion. Max Verstappen won the race ahead of Lewis Hamilton, with Charles Leclerc fourth and George Russell sixth.
That leaves an unusually tight fight immediately behind Antonelli. Verstappen is second on 261 points, Hamilton has 259, Russell 250 and Leclerc 245. Just 16 points cover four drivers with four rounds remaining. For Ferrari in particular, Brazil should tell us rather more than Mexico did.
Ferrari have pace – now they need to use it
Mexico was arguably Ferrari’s most convincing weekend of the season without delivering the victory that looked possible. Leclerc topped both Friday practice sessions before Hamilton took his first pole position for Ferrari. They then ran first and second on the opening lap, only for their fight to help Verstappen into contention.
Hamilton finished 0.799secs behind the Red Bull, with Leclerc fourth after receiving a five-second penalty for leaving the track and gaining an advantage while battling his team-mate. The awkward part for Ferrari was that neither driver appeared particularly happy with how it unfolded.
As we looked at earlier this week, the Hamilton-Leclerc tension gives Ferrari something to resolve before Brazil. The opening sequence through the Senna S and down towards Turn Four can put team-mates into the same situation. Ferrari do not need to nominate a number one driver, but they cannot afford another afternoon where having two cars capable of winning becomes part of the problem.
Is Ferrari’s improvement real?
There is another question Brazil can begin to answer. Mexico is an unusual circuit because of its altitude, so Ferrari’s pace there does not automatically mean the car will be as competitive at Interlagos.
There was evidence before Mexico that the trend was changing. Leclerc’s second place in Austin offered Ferrari genuine encouragement, particularly after recent upgrades and set-up changes left him more comfortable with the car. Brazil is a different examination again. The 4.309km lap is short, qualifying gaps tend to be small, and teams have to balance performance through the slower middle section against speed on the long climb back towards the start-finish line.
If Hamilton and Leclerc are again fighting Verstappen and Mercedes at the front, Ferrari can have greater confidence that its recent improvement is real rather than a couple of circuit-specific spikes.
Verstappen has something to chase
Antonelli’s title has removed the biggest prize, but Verstappen is hardly likely to treat the remaining races as a farewell tour. His Mexico victory moved him into second in the championship, although Hamilton is only two points behind. Russell and Leclerc are close enough to make second place a four-way contest.
Antonelli, meanwhile, enters his first race weekend as world champion with the pressure fundamentally changed. There is no championship calculation to protect now. How Mercedes and its new champion approach the final four races will be worth watching.
Interlagos tends not to need much help producing an interesting Grand Prix. This year it arrives with the title settled, but with Ferrari needing to prove Mexico was no one-off and four of the biggest names on the grid separated by only 16 points.
Practice begins on Friday, qualifying is at 18:00 GMT on Saturday, and the 71-lap São Paulo Grand Prix starts at 17:00 GMT on Sunday.
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