NASCAR Martinsville preview: Larson has first chance to seal third Cup title

• Kyle Larson takes a 73-point championship lead into Martinsville
• The defending champion can put the Cup title beyond his rivals on Sunday
• Denny Hamlin is Larson’s nearest challenger and has six Martinsville victories
• The O’Reilly Auto Parts Series races on Saturday before Sunday’s 500-lap Cup showdown

Kyle Larson has his first opportunity to secure a third NASCAR Cup Series championship when The Chase reaches Martinsville on Sunday.

Larson’s dramatic Talladega victory opened his advantage over Denny Hamlin from five points to 73 with only Martinsville and Homestead remaining, putting the Hendrick Motorsports driver in control of the title race.

Larson can settle the championship early

Larson needs to score 59 points at Martinsville to put the championship beyond his rivals regardless of their results, although NASCAR rules require him to start the Homestead finale before he can officially be crowned champion.

A victory would therefore allow Larson to control his own destiny. NASCAR’s Racing Insights model gives him a 92.3% chance of eventually winning the championship and a 36.8% chance of settling it at Martinsville.

His recent record at the 0.526-mile circuit strengthens that position. Larson has finished sixth or better in seven of his past eight Martinsville starts, with ninth place this spring the exception, and won at the track in 2023.

Hamlin needs Martinsville response

If there is a circuit for Hamlin to begin an unlikely comeback, Martinsville is one of the strongest candidates. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has six Cup victories at the Virginia short track, the most among active full-time drivers, but he needs a major swing after losing 42 points to Larson at Talladega.

Christopher Bell is 74 points behind the leader and Chase Briscoe 79 back. Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick remain mathematically alive, but their title chances are increasingly dependent on Larson suffering trouble.

For Hamlin, the immediate calculation is severe. If Larson outscores him by at least three points on Sunday, Hamlin will be eliminated from championship contention. To control his own destiny at Homestead, he needs to leave Martinsville no more than 22 points behind Larson.

Martinsville leaves little room for error

Talladega’s drafting lottery gives way to a very different test at NASCAR’s shortest circuit. Martinsville’s tight corners, heavy braking, tyre wear and congested pit road make track position difficult to recover once it has been lost.

The Cup teams have 12 sets of tyres available across the weekend, including nine new sets for Sunday’s race. Managing them while surviving 500 laps of close-quarters racing will be central to the title fight.

Saturday begins with Cup practice at 1pm ET / 5pm GMT, followed by qualifying at 2.05pm ET / 6.05pm GMT. The O’Reilly Auto Parts Series National Debt Relief 250 starts at 4pm ET / 8pm GMT. Sunday’s Cup Series Xfinity 500 begins at 2pm ET / 7pm GMT, with 37 cars entered for the penultimate race of the season.

The Read Motorsport Martinsville weekend guide has the UK and US viewing details and full timetable.

For the latest NASCAR, Formula 1, MotoGP and motorsport stories, follow the Read Motorsport news hub.