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Watkins Glen International breakdown: Who has the edge heading into race weekend?

Neha DwivediNeha Dwivedi
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  • Know who the favorites are at Watkins Glen.
  • The weather has dampened fan experience, but attention now shifts to road course.
  • Beyond SVG, there is an HMS driver among the favorites conversation.

The 12th race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series is pretty much set for Watkins Glen International this weekend, and attention has shifted to drivers who specialise in road courses.

Shane van Gisbergen won last year’s event, and with Tyler Reddick’s recent form, especially at the first road course event of the season at Circuit of The Americas, the field enters this round with no clear line separating contenders from the rest.

The key favorites will include SVG from Trackhouse Racing, while a few drivers from Hendrick Motorsports also remain in the list as fans weigh their choices ahead of race day.

Favorite NASCAR Cup drivers for the Watkins Glen weekend

Although fan experience has been affected due to the sanctioning body’s schedule experiment that shifted the Watkins Glen race to May instead of its traditional August slot, attention now turns back to the road course discipline and the drivers expected to control it.

Shane van Gisbergen will enter the weekend as a central figure in the discussion. Last year, he took the win at Watkins Glen by a margin of over 11 seconds ahead of Christopher Bell, marking one of his five wins during the season. With Tyler Reddick already taking a win off him this year, the pressure now sits on SVG to respond before momentum slips further.

He has made just two Cup starts at the track, but his average finish stands at 1.5, meaning he has not finished worse than P2 in his appearances there so far.

Christopher Bell stands as the next reference point in terms of average finishes. He has made five starts at Watkins Glen without securing a win, but the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has recorded two finishes inside the top 5 and four inside the top 10, keeping himself consistently in the discussion.

Among veteran drivers, Kyle Busch will be a central name in the conversation. While he has been in a win drought stretching back to 2023, his Watkins Glen record keeps him relevant in pre-race discussions. Across 20 starts, he carries an average finish of 12.2, with two wins and seven top-five finishes.

However, the concerning part is that his last win at the track was in 2013, while his most recent top-five finish was in 2021. Across his last four starts, he has not finished better than P14. Last season, despite starting from P5, he finished 22nd.

Connor Zilisch is another driver drawing attention heading into the weekend. His rookie Cup season has struggled for consistency, with 11 starts producing two DNFs and an average finish of 26, placing him at P33 in the standings.

His most recent run at COTA showed mixed signals. He qualified 25th in the No. 88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet, moved into the top 20 across Stage 1 and Stage 2, but was spun by Daniel Suárez in Turn 1 on lap 25, dropping him to the rear of the field. He fought back into the top five in the final stage, logging some of the fastest laps during that phase.

Running P4 during a restart on lap 79, he was caught in a four-wide chain reaction in Turn 1 and spun again. He recovered once more over the final 17 laps, passing Joey Logano in the closing corner to finish P14, which remains his best Cup result so far. Watkins Glen now presents another chance to reset the narrative.

Some honorable mentions

Before Shane van Gisbergen entered the series, Chase Elliott was widely seen as one of the strongest road course competitors in NASCAR. At Watkins Glen, he has recorded two wins and two poles across nine starts, along with eight lead-lap finishes and nine finishes where he completed the race running.

Elliott will arrive after securing his second win of the season last weekend at Texas. While the road course package continues to evolve, the No. 9 team carries experience that could influence the outcome at Watkins Glen, keeping Elliott firmly in the conversation.

Finally, Tyler Reddick remains a key figure in the discussion, carrying the same Watkins Glen average finish of 12.2 as Kyle Busch. He has made five starts at the track and arrives after strong results across different styles of circuits in 2026. At COTA, he led 58 laps of 95 after starting from pole position and outdueled SVG to take the win. With that form in place, Watkins Glen becomes another opportunity for Reddick to challenge SVG again in road course territory.

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