- Francesco Bagnaia averages just 8.5 points per weekend in 2026.
- Ducati’s factory team has now gone nine Sundays without a podium.
- Bagnaia reportedly set for Aprilia move ahead of 2027 regulation reset
Four rounds into the 2026 MotoGP season and Pecco Bagnaia sits ninth in the standings with 34 points, an average of 8.5 from a maximum of 37 available per race weekend. Ducati’s two-time world champion is not just struggling. He is statistically invisible.
The trend has been a downward spiral since the last third of 2025. He retired from six of the last main races, the Motegi win being a genuine aberration. This campaign, the Italian already has two Sunday DNFs and a best finish of only P9.
Curiously, however, since that perfect Japanese GP weekend, his sprint form has been noticeably better. He won from pole on Saturday in Malaysia, and in 2026, he has scored points in all four sprints, finishing runner-up in the last two.
A new enigma
While this underlying new pattern should have made him confident, it’s also a complete departure from his usual weekend formbook. The 29-year-old had a habit of lukewarm Fridays and struggled with the balance of the smaller sprint distance fuel tank before roaring to life on Sundays. Even in 2024, he won 11 of the 20 Grands Prix, compared to champion Jorge Martin’s three.
So, more than the continued struggle, the flipped pattern in performance should be a greater cause for concern. The rain on Saturday at Jerez benefited him immensely as he gambled on pitting while in a nothing-to-lose situation.
Coinciding with factory teammate Marc Marquez’s own injury struggles has only doubled the headache for the red Desmosedicis. It’s now nine Sundays without a rostrum, their worst drought since going completely podiumless in 2013. But even a clearly battered Marquez is 23 points clear of Bagnaia.
Moreover, this isn’t a satellite team that’s struggling. This is the mothership that has dominated MotoGP for the last half-decade. The improved reliability of Gresini’s Alex Marquez and, in particular, VR46’s Fabio Di Giannantonio, has been a saving grace. But as riders on the same GP26 spec, it also compounds the Pecco puzzle further.
Afresh start beckons for Bagnaia
Even this early, a third premier class crown seems out of the reckoning for the No. 63 rider. But the news may not be all bad.
He is widely reported to have signed a multi-year contract with the chief contenders for Ducati’s throne: Aprilia. In theory, it feels the ideal route for all parties involved. Bagnaia gets the change of scenery he desperately needs, Aprilia create an all-Italian duo alongside current championship leader Marco Bezzecchi, and Ducati can welcome someone like KTM’s Pedro Acosta.
Crucially, the RS-GP’s strengths play out to exactly what Bagnaia requires most: a bike that’s lethal on Sundays. Aprilia have just one sprint gold medal in 2026, but have romped to 95 points out of a possible 100 on Sundays. That’s the very territory where Bagnaia has historically been most dangerous.
Bezzecchi and Martin’s success after switching away from Ducati themselves demonstrates that the move carries precedent. A race-winning Raul Fernandez at Trackhouse Aprilia only strengthens that case further.
The one genuine unknown is 2027’s regulatory overhaul and the arrival of the 850cc machines. Even that’s a variable that resets assumptions for every manufacturer on the grid, and nobody yet knows who it favours.
But if Aprilia can carry even a fraction of their current Sunday dominance into the new era, Bagnaia may find himself precisely where he has thrived before: on the right bike, at the right moment. The crisis is real. So is the opportunity.
