Why Neuville’s Sardina victory was no false dawn
Thierry Neuville isn’t the first driver to beat Sebastien Ogier head-to-head over a rally weekend. Jari-Matti Latvala achieved it numerous times as did the likes of Sebastien Loeb, Kris Meeke, Ott Tanak, Andreas Mikkelsen, Hayden Paddon and of course Neuville himself.
However, Neuville is the first and only driver who has ever looked capable of dethroning Ogier and becoming the first non-Frenchman to take the WRC crown since 2003.
2017 could have been the year – but that proved to be a false dawn. The raw performance wasn’t the problem – he racked up nearly three times the stage wins of Ogier and won twice as many rallies – but he made too many mistakes. Failing to capitalize on strong early-season performance, and playing catch-up thereafter.
When Neuville finally caught Ogier in the points, his season self-destructed with consecutive non-points finishes in two of the final four rallies.
So why should 2018 be any different? Ogier has been beaten early in the season before but when he’s put under pressure in the championship, he’s always found an extra gear in the second half of the season, crushing all opposition.
Surely Neuville was pushing too much in Sardina, and it’s only a matter of time before he and Hyundai buckle under the pressure?
Well, here’s why history might not repeat itself and why Ogier’s stranglehold on the World Rally Championship might just end this year.
1) The points buffer
Neuville led the championship for just one rally last season. After Finland, he was equal on points with Ogier. This left little margin for error. So when the suspension on his Hyundai i20 broke on the very next rally, Neuville suddenly found himself with a 17-point deficit.
It forced him to take more risks, and this inevitably led to more mistakes with another DNF in Spain, the final nail his championship coffin.
This year, Neuville heads into the second half of the season with a 27-point cushion. It’s no guarantee, but it does mean Neuville can sacrifice some points for the sake of finishing a rally.
He made a calculated risk to push Ogier all the way to victory in Sardina. He rolled the dice, but he’ll know he can’t repeat Sardina at every remaining rally, but he knows that when it really matters, he has the pure speed to not only match Ogier but to beat him. That could come in handy if the championship goes down to Australia.
2) Damage limitation in Finland
The Hyundai i20 is arguably the class of the new generation cars, but it struggled to leave an impression on the Finnish forests in 2017 aside from on the rock that broke Paddon’s suspension.
Last season in Finland, Ogier made his one major mistake of the year, but Neuville slumped to sixth position. In 2018, when Ogier had his wobbles in Sweden and Portugal, Neuville scooped up the victory on both occasions, making sure this year to capitalize on Ogier’s misfortune.
It’s unlikely Neuville will be fighting for victory in Finland, but it’s hardly Ogier’s strongest event either. If he can stay within a position or two of Ogier, Finland will be branded a success, and the one and only rally where he doesn’t have the car to win. Unless Hyundai can fix its 2017 Finland woes, then it’s even more advantage Neuville.
3) Assistance from his team-mates
Dani Sordo is arguably driving better than ever before. He bounced back in style from his Monte shunt, with four consecutive top-four finishes including two podiums. A puncture cost him victory in Mexico, but it proved he has rally-winning pace on gravel as well as asphalt.
His favoured events are still to come, and after the disappointment on home turf last year, you can bet Sordo will be among the favourites for Rally Spain.
Moreover, Mikkelsen’s pace has turned around, he just has to wait for his luck to change. He looks back to his best and is more than capable of winning multiple rallies before the end of the year.
Paddon also has a point to prove and is due to some good fortune. He should be in a good position to take points away from Ogier in Wales and Australia.
Meanwhile, Ogier has Elfyn Evans and Teemu Suninen. The latter will be absent from two of the six remaining rounds, while Evans has just one podium to his name this season.
4) Toyota
Toyota has had the worst reliability of the four manufacturers this year but is certainly not lacking in outright pace. Tanak tops the stage wins table from the first half of the year, but has just one victory to his name.
Often, Toyota self-destructs on Friday, and its rally is over before it has even begun.
However, Toyota is surely the favourites for Finland, so much so they could lock out the podium. With the championship distant, Tanak will be able to take more risks than Neuville/Ogier, while Esapekka Lappi needs no excuse to push. Latvala’s future is under threat, so expect a major step for the experienced Finn in the second half of 2018.
5) Sebastien Loeb
After the disappointment of Mexico and Corsica, Loeb has one more chance this year to return to the top step of the WRC podium in Spain. An increase in quality to the WRC field only serves to increase Neuville’s chances of title glory.
Conclusion
Neuville has the stronger team-mates than Ogier and both he and Hyundai will have learnt from their 2017 wrongs.
His points lead will come under immense pressure from Ogier – who will not be beaten easily – but Neuville can use his sizeable advantage to pick his battles.
Sardina was his biggest battle yet and Neuville triumphed, but the title war ahead will ultimately define Neuville’s position in history and even though it’s going to take a monumental effort to end Ogier’s reign, he might just do it.