Traditionally, the Spanish Grand Prix is where things begin to heat up, literally and figuratively in Formula 1.
Various pundits will explain that when the F1 circus rolls into Europe, after the four opening ‘flyaway’ races, the development race begins in earnest and the pecking order becomes clear.
And after a truly manic opening to the campaign which has seen the fight for victory go down to the wire on three occasions, the pre-season uncertainty – to an extent – remains.
The midfield, as we well know, will chop and change throughout, but the battle at the sharp end, as intriguing as it has been since the mayhem of 2012, will evolve more subtly.
That might be bad news for Ferrari. Main man Sebastian Vettel has picked up two wins from the first four grands prix and yet he might be lamenting his failure to pick up maximum points.
In Shanghai, he was partially unfortunate – the timing of the safety car played perfectly into the hands of ultimate victor Daniel Ricciardo and then Max Verstappen clumsily sent him for a spin – but he only had himself to blame last time out in Baku after a bizarrely desperate lunge on Valtteri Bottas on the restart dropped him out of contention.
If indeed, Ferrari has built the better car as it would appear then it deserves massive credit. But the concern is that the points it’s lost in the early rounds could be the ultimate difference, particularly as Mercedes seems bound to improve given the dominance it has exercised for a number of years.
Ferrari will do all it can to maximise Vettel’s returns, including compromising the race of his largely powerless team-mate. But one could argue, given the closeness of the fight, that neither of the Scuderia duo can let 25 points slip from its grasp again.
It may be too early for such ominous warnings, but the Silver Arrows fightback appears imminent.
Mercedes finally opened its account for 2018 in Baku, but it was a hollow victory for both driver and team. It came following a heart-wrenching Bottas retirement, and Lewis Hamilton would confess after the race that the Finn deserved top spot and that his performance had certaintly not merited a triumph.
Hamilton has repeatedly acknowledged that he’s slightly out-of-sorts, reflected in his early struggles to deal with the impressive pace of his team-mate, and must settle into the groove quickly. His performances thus far have not been good enough, and his customary doubts and frustration look to be self-perpetuating.
Fortunately, he has not been punished. In fact, he’s been rewarded by the bedlam. Hamilton leads the standings, meaning that if his team can rectify its weaknesses and further enhance its strengths, nudging ahead of Ferrari in the process, that early ‘blip’ may not matter by November.
Perhaps thus far that eventuality has been presented as inevitable. It isn’t. But Mercedes knows what’s costing it – its inability to extract every ounce of performance from Pirelli’s recalcitrant compounds – and it’s pretty much inconceivable that it won’t improve in that department (perhaps by studying how its rivals have managed to do it so effectively).
Overcome that obstacle and the W09 can be truly unleashed. In testing, Mercedes was the quickest of the bunch and at the same venue, it will look to finally showcase the extent of its pace by finding that elusive ‘sweet spot’.
What, then, of Red Bull? After the flashpoint of Baku, will the Verstappen-Ricciardo scrap be a mere sideshow or a central feature of the title fight? At the moment, you’d lean towards the first answer.
The Bulls may have won in China, after which they affirmed their ambitions of glory, but that was a win largely engineered from the pit-wall, with Ricciardo able to gloriously slice his way through the front-runners on brand spanking new rubber. For the moment, they seem to be just a menace, forcing Mercedes and Ferrari to look nervously over their shoulder and punishing any errors without necessarily having the pace to match them.
The team, with its notoriously sublime chassis, should excel at the downforce-dependent Circuit de Barcelona. However, races are won on tarmac, not on paper, and if it’s third quickest again here, you start to wonder whether it can be considered a realistic contender.
For Verstappen in particular, each race just gets bigger and bigger. He needed a clean weekend in Baku, and it’s safe to say he didn’t get it. A scrappy Friday indicated he was feeling the pressure, but on Sunday he seemed set for an important, morale-boosting haul of points before disaster struck.
Regardless of whether he was at fault for the collision, a catastrophic clash with his team-mate was surely the worst case scenario for a man under an alarming amount of scrutiny.
However, all of the criticism seems to building towards an emphatic reminder of his talent. Perhaps, on the track where he recorded his first ever win, on his Red Bull debut, courtesy of a defensive masterclass, this will be his weekend.
Few doubt that Verstappen is on a path to greatness, but for the moment his erraticism has halted that previously relentless march.
The Dutchman said in the build-up that this could be a “defining race” for Red Bull in the grand scheme of things. The same could be said for Mercedes and Ferrari, for this is a venue where the presently hazy pecking order, clouded by tyre struggles and 2018’s penchant for chaos, will be brought into sharp focus.
