28 points with six races to go.
Sebastian Vettel may have overcome worse odds before, but the battle to overhaul Lewis Hamilton for the 2017 crown presents a challenge even the four-time champion can’t overcome without major help from Lady Luck.
In 2010, Vettel was 31 points behind leader Hamilton in the drivers’ championship but won the title by four points ahead of Alonso. Two years later he scooped up his third title despite been 39 points adrift with seven races to go.
So by that logic, there is every possibility the German can leapfrog Hamilton. However, in both 2010 and 2012, there were six, seven even arguably eight other drivers that could realistically take points off his main rival/s.
In 2017, there are at a very maximum – four drivers who can take points off Hamilton on a regular weekend. One of those is Hamilton’s team-mate Valtteri Bottas, who has been distinctly average in comparison to the Brit in recent races. Moreover, Mercedes has strongly hinted at favouring Hamilton in the remaining races and Bottas has shown he’s willing to play the team game.
In 2017, Hamilton has been beaten by a Red Bull on Sunday on just three occasions and all of them were anomalous results. Kimi Raikkonen has also only finished ahead of Hamilton in three races. So Vettel relying on others to take enough points away from Hamilton for him to win the championship is ambitious.
Furthermore, Hamilton’s three wins on the bounce have to strike fear in the hearts of the Tifosi. Spa and Monza victories were anticipated but stealing the win in Singapore was Hamilton’s most important triumph of the season.
Even though he benefited from the first lap carnage, his race pace was frighteningly good juxtaposing his Friday/Saturday issues. Ferrari was annihilated at Monza and its yet to deliver that killer weekend where it blows away the opposition. That’s partly because Mercedes has a faster car overall.
The stats don’t lie with 10 out of a possible 14 pole positions and only failure to switch the tyres on / race strategy has prevented Mercedes from having a more commanding lead in both championships.
Vettel did an extraordinary job in the first half of the season, arguably obtaining the maximum points possible from almost every round bar Baku. But his superb performances coupled with a large quantity of tight, twisty street tracks which played into the Italian outfit’s favour, flattered the inferior pace of the Ferrari
Standings with six races to go;
Hamilton 263
Vettel 235
Let’s take a look at the remaining six circuits and determine which driver will have the edge;
Sepang. On paper, this should be a track that favours Mercedes, with a couple of long straights and corners which may even put Red Bull on the back of Ferrari. Hamilton is also no slouch around this track so I expect him to take revenge for last year’s cruel twist of fate and claim his second win here. Bottas would need a big turnaround to beat a determined Vettel who I believe will grab second.
Theoretical standings with five races to go;
Hamilton 288
Vettel 253
Suzuka. One of Hamilton’s favourite tracks and dubbed a ‘power track’ which should favour Mercedes. Though Vettel is also ridiculously strong around this circuit with four wins to his name. The Brit’s car advantage should shine through here but it should be a close one. Five wins on the trot will also give Hamilton supreme confidence.
Theoretical standings with four races to go;
Hamilton 313
Vettel 271
Austin and Mexico City should be a fairly even affair. But one point that I simply can’t ignore any longer is reliability. It’s what cost Hamilton the title last year and what could swing the title back towards Vettel. So let’s presume Hamilton retires in Austin due to mechanical woes and Vettel triumphs.
It looks increasingly likely that Vettel is heading for a grid penalty due to exceeding the maximum number of components used this year. For argument’s sake, we will say he takes in it Mexico and being incredibly optimistic; he recovers to second place.
Theoretical standings with two races to go;
Hamilton 338
Vettel 314
So even with a retirement for Hamilton and a generous prediction for Vettel’s recovery if he takes a grid penalty, Vettel still trails by 24 points with two remaining races.
Hamilton could afford to finish fourth in Interlagos and third in Abu Dhabi regardless of where Vettel finishes and still claim the title.
Realistically Vettel could probably win in Brazil and maybe Hamilton will have an off weekend and finish fourth. Mercedes has had a stranglehold on the Abu Dhabi circuit in recent years so it’s tough to see Vettel overcoming the three-time champion there. But again, let’s give Vettel the benefit of the doubt and hand him the win there with Hamilton playing it safe for the championship in third.
Theoretical end of season standings at the end of the season.
Hamilton 365
Vettel 364
So despite being incredibly favourable towards Vettel, handing him half of the remaining races and second in the rest. While also presuming Hamilton retires from one race and fails to stand on the podium in another, by our logic, Hamilton will still win his fourth title under the lights in Abu Dhabi. Odds are, he will also win by a much bigger margin than a solitary point.
