For journalists, this year’s summer break from the grand prix circus is proving little respite. Instead of the usual conjecture and hyperbole that typically fills the long weeks between races, Formula 1 is being treated to a fantastic tale of human determination, and parallel to it, a highly intriguing debate.
The prospect of Robert Kubica’s return to the cockpit has perhaps been the most heart-warming tale the paddock has hosted in years.
But the narrative has continued apace: just as soon as Kubica was reacquainting himself with F1 machinery in Valencia, the prospect of a second test arose, and then Robert was being linked with a run in the official test in Hungary. Amid it all, the most extraordinary notion was floated: that Kubica may be laying the foundations for a remarkable return to full-time grand prix racing.
Considering the fact that Robert suffered a partial amputation of his right arm following his crash in the Ronde di Andora rally in 2011, there really are no superlatives to convey just what a feat of spirit and tenacity a return to the grid would be. But is it a truly realistic prospect?
Now that Kubica has been subjected to the full force of the 2017 cars, on one of the most physical circuits in the world, can we honestly say that he is a genuine candidate to fill the now almost inevitable vacancy alongside Nico Hulkenberg?
The signs from Renault are good: the fact that Renault conceded the opportunity to run one of their race drivers in the Hungarian test so that they could evaluate Kubica (the Pole’s previous F1 experience made him ineligible to be entered in the test as the mandatory rookie) appears to be more than a simple act of uncharacteristic generosity from an F1 team. In that vane, speaking to NBC Sports at Silverstone, Renault F1 managing director Cyril Abiteboul said:
“I don’t want to say yes or no, it’s not like an exam. But we have not seen any obvious roadblocks. The situation is complex, we are not doing it for PR even though it is generating a lot of media and expectation. We care for Robert a lot more than this.”
Abiteboul went on to add: “He could be an option in 2018.” Comments like these has fueled the escalation of a Kubica return from pipe-dream to seemingly being eminently plausible. This week, Renault junior driver Oliver Rowland said that he believed Kubica was a rival for a F1 seat in 2018, and last month Read Motorsport’s Stephen Camp argued that Renault’s current deficit to Toro Rosso and Haas in the constructors’ standings may even put a 2017 debut on the cards for Kubica.
But F1 is a conclave of logicians and rationalists: putting aside the emotive resonance of Kubica’s case, it will only be feasible if it makes logical sense. It would be a disservice to Kubica to award him a race seat only to see him frustrated if he was unable to regain the ferocious level of competitiveness that he achieved in his first career.
For Renault, it would also make no sense to take a chance on Kubica when they could well tempt a proven driver of the quality of Carlos Sainz from the Red Bull stable, who only recently said they were willing to accept offers for Sainz.
Similarly, as a Formula Renault 3.5 champion and the only man standing in the way of Charles Leclerc turning this year’s F2 season into a coronation, Oliver Rowland would also be a more than creditable replacement for Jolyon Palmer.
Renault are not looking for an experienced lead driver; in Nico Hulkenberg they have found an immensely capable, blisteringly fast team figurehead. That arguably gives Renault the flexibility to consider a rookie like Rowland, but also the safety-net to perhaps take a chance on Kubica.
However, equally, 2018 will be the third season of Renault’s factory-backed venture, and the expectations from group chairman Carlos Ghosn will be high, so performance can be the only parameter that matters.
In terms of Kubica’s performance, the results from his Hungarian outing were mixed. The Pole managed 142 laps with a best time of 1m18.572s, one tenth slower than Jolyon Palmer’s best qualifying lap, albeit on the softer, ultra-soft tyres.
That said, Kubica’s qualifying simulation attempts were part of a multiple lap run on a heavier fuel load, and the fact that they were just over a second faster than his longer runs perhaps suggests that the Pole was a bit fatigued in his final run of the day. Unquestionably, Kubica did not produce his ultimate single-lap pace. His morning long run was very consistent, his afternoon long run started faster, but soon began to deteriorate.
But the minutiae of being a capable grand prix driver cannot be inferred from a single test in 2017 machinery, so whilst Robert may have not been “100% happy” with his performance, it nevertheless cannot be underestimated what Kubica has already achieved.
It has already been a feat of Herculean determination to go from suffering life-changing injuries, to rallying, to testing a DTM car, to racing a Renault R.S. 01, to testing a devastatingly violent, full-fat 2017 F1 car. Kubica’s Hungarian test is already an accomplishment that can be mentioned in the same sentence as double amputee Alex Zanardi’s Olympic gold medal-winning heroics, and should not automatically be conjoined to expectations of a full-time return.
It is already an accomplishment indicative of the plainly remarkable individual that Kubica is, and confirmation that the Pole has the mental resilience and fortitude of the champion that most in the paddock thought he would become.
For the Enstone squad, for whom Kubica was spellbinding in 2010, it is difficult not to be persuaded by the sheer grit and determination of Robert’s rehabilitation alone, but the only way they can do justice to such a feat is to dispassionately measure the Pole against the other contenders for Palmer’s seat.
So yes, Kubica could do the impossible, the team and his rivals have openly earmarked him as a contender, and it is entirely plausible that he could improve upon Jolyon’s level of performance from the outset with the prospect of improving further as he acclimatizes to the hybrid cars. Hopefully he will be selected if, and only if, he is the best man for the job.
