The Indianapolis 500 is a race where starting position means very little. Recently, two-time Indy 500 winner Juan Pablo Montoya said as much to the IndyStar, after qualifying 18th. In the same article, Graham Rahal who qualified 15th backed up Montoya’s claim.
“Qualifying here, is not the most important thing,” said Rahal.
“But with the points that they give out now, it killed us last year. So we need to make sure that we have a pretty good run over the next couple of days, for sure.”
Rahal, unlike Montoya is participating in a full season, so qualifying points are important to the RLL Racing driver.
If starting at or toward the front isn’t important, where then are drivers most likely to win? That is where the Indy 500 is unique and so difficult to predict. In the past 100 runnings of the Indy 500, drivers have won from as high as pole and as low as P28, and nearly everywhere in between. If sketched out in a bell curve, well, it isn’t one. Therefore how likely are the odds of the 33 drivers in this year’s Indy 500?
History is still to made for those starting in P18, P23-24, P26 and P29-P33. None of these starting positions have won; although P18, P23, P29, and P32-P33 have all come second on multiple occasions. Of these, P18 has the most P2 finishes, incidentally it is also Montoya’s starting position this year.
If you are a midfield risk taker, put your money on lucky P13 and P15. These positions have seen their drivers take the checkered flag eight times, four apiece. The latest for this grouping was Montoya’s P15 starting position victory in 2015.
In the top-10, the top three spots have the most winners with 20, 11, and 11 winners respectively. However it should be noted that of the pole winners, only Rick Mears and Johnny Rutherford have won from pole multiple times. That spells bad news for Scott Dixon, who will start from pole for the third time on Sunday.
The P2 starter hasn’t won the Indy 500 in 16 years. Last achieved once again by Montoya in 2000. The third place starter is currently on a six-year dry spell, last won by Dario Franchitti in 2010. Starting fourth, a winner hasn’t emerged from that spot since 1986 when Rahal’s father, Bobby won.
It has been 20 years since P5 has had this much attention. Starting fifth this year is Fernando Alonso. In a bid for a Triple Crown, he forsakes Formula 1 and the Monaco Grand Prix for a shot at Indy greatness. He also carries the hope of F1 fans everywhere. Mostly in Europe. Alonso’s chances to win from P5, are bolstered somewhat knowing the man who won the 1996 race is in this year’s race, Buddy Lazier. Perhaps Alonso could ask Lazier—starting P30—for pointers later this week. Alonso should also be comforted in knowing seven past drivers have won starting fifth.
With so many possible winners, who is most likely to drink the milk on Sunday?
Mathematically, if averaging out the last 10 races by starting positions, put your money on Marco Andretti, starting P8. Perhaps, the youngest Andretti can do something his father never could. If looking from the beginning of the Indy 500, P7 would be the best starting position, therefore go with Dixon’s team-mate Tony Kanaan this year.
