BBC Formula One commentator and former World Endurance Champion Allan McNish shared his thoughts on the upcoming season with Read Motorsport at the Autosport Show, the Scotsman expecting improvements taking place behind Mercedes but not a total shake-up of the norm.
The 2017 season will see some of the biggest technical changes in a long time, with the sport returning to wider cars and tyres. This is set to deliver us with some devastatingly fast lap times.
McNish reckons that Red Bull Racing will be Mercedes’ closest challengers this season, citing their tendency to be aggressive with car development and the fact that they gained a massive half a second in performance across the 2016 season as his reason.
“Whenever there is big change there is opportunity,” he said. “Now, being practical, which is sadly a Scottish trait, you think the status quo won’t change too much. From a fan’s perspective, we want a bit more competition to go towards Mercedes and that’s the opportunity.
“I think Red Bull normally take more advantages out of these opportunities because their mentality is very agile, it’s very aggressive,” added McNish.
“They can throw caution to the wind a little bit more than necessarily a pure car manufacturer such as Mercedes, who’ve got to make sure that they deliver. The only person Red Bull have to deliver to is one person, that’s the boss, that’s it. I expect Red Bull to be on it. They were the biggest developing team last year; they gained the most lap time from the beginning to the end of the year”
The former Toyota driver also said that he expects McLaren to pull themselves up the order more, though remained sceptical over their ambitious target of finishing in the top three of the world championship.
“I’d expect McLaren to be a little bit better, but their statement the other day of ‘well we’ve got one of the best chassis and if we’re fourth in the constructors’ we’re going to be disappointed,’ and that’s a big ask because that means they are going to finish one, two or three. That means they’re going to finish higher than Red Bull, Ferrari or Mercedes to do that and that’s a big ask, never mind Force India or Williams.
2017 will be the first season since 1994 that the reigning world champion won’t be present on the grid. Nico Rosberg stunned the world when he announced his retirement from the sport just seven days after achieving the ultimate prize in motor racing. Though initially surprised, McNish quickly found himself understanding Rosberg’s decision.
“(I was) surprised, thought about it, not totally surprised, understand it. I think there is logic to it; it’s a very personal decision,” he said.
“I’m retired myself and my last race was winning the world championship, so I can understand the reasons behind it. Now, you could look at it, 31, Christ almighty, far too early to retire. Why don’t you do it again? If you’ve ticked all your boxes, and if you don’t feel you’ve got the energy and the motivation to do it again why try?
“It’s his life, he’s had a long career, he’s been in Formula 1 a long time. His whole life has been about racing to win a world championship. He’s done it and you can see the logic, or I can anyway.”
Replacing the German will be nine-time podium finisher Valtteri Bottas, and McNish believes that the Finn does have the potential for great things with the Brackley outfit. But he will have to seriously raise his game if he is to beat as formidable an opponent as Lewis Hamilton.
“I think Lewis is probably the fastest guy every single lap in the world today. I think he’s pretty ruthless, he’s a three-time world champion. I think anyone going into that team is going to have to cut some serious mustard to be up to his level,” he said.
“I think Bottas is very similar to Nico, in terms of personality, northern European mentality and in terms of the way he works. He’s not going to come in and start throwing toys out the pram, which fits in with Mercedes. In terms of that it’s a kind of like for like, and he’ll deliver. I think he’ll win races. I think he has the potential of a world championship.”
Ferrari’s 2016 was a massive backwards step compared to their successful 2015 campaign in which they won three grand prix with Sebastian Vettel. McNish compared the current Scuderia to that of the 1980s and highlighted just how little progress they made in 2016.
“Ferrari, we need them at the front – fact. We need them at the front, but they’ve become very much internally focussed,” he stated. “There have been some hirings and firings, lots of talk and disgruntlement and rumours and that’s never, ever good.
“Ferrari themselves are in a bit of disarray. They remind me, which is well before your time, of the Ferrari of the ’80s, where they were only reacting to the press coverage on the Monday morning and it was more extreme than it is now.
“But it just didn’t have the cohesive one team mentality. I have to say that I was surprised to see them firing James Allison – who is going to turn up at Mercedes as the replacement for Paddy Lowe – because James and his area of expertise is very positive in terms of aero and that’s one area where Ferrari are weak. So that surprised me, and obviously that relationship wasn’t working.
“Between ’15 and ’16 – this is a point for you – their average gap to the front was exactly the same. So they have not gained anything over Mercedes in the last year at all, zero. Whereas Red Bull have gained half a second from the beginning to the end of last season.”
Pre-season testing will take place from February 27 – March 2 and March 7 – 10 at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya before the paddock heads to Albert Park in Australia for the first round of the world championship on March 26.
