When Nico Rosberg shockingly announced his retirement from Formula One five days after claiming the world title, there was a number of names suggested that would have been ideal replacements but realistically were highly unlikely.
The most common one was Fernando Alonso who most want to see put multiple years of misery behind him, achieve a third world title and battle it out with the best drivers in the business.
The likelihood of him making the move, however, was near zero as Mercedes would have had to pay the price of gold, frankincense, myrrh and a lot more besides to buy the Spaniard out of his McLaren contract.
Under the same predicament were the two Red Bull drivers, Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo. Many would love to see the two most exciting drivers on the grid challenge Lewis Hamilton in the same car, but both are more tightly screwed down into their current contracts than the bolts on the Eiffel Tower.
The thing is, as a footballer can put in a transfer request when they wish to leave a club, would Ricciardo have been better off trying to force a move to Mercedes?
In the days before Christmas, the Australian confirmed he would be seeing out his current contract with Red Bull, which expires after 2018, and that he would not want to move to Mercedes as the atmosphere at Milton Keynes is more conducive to producing better results.
But, after giving some thought, here’s why I think he may be missing out on a perfect opportunity.
Mercedes will be a leading team in 2017
As much as many of us hope Red Bull and Ferrari can be a match for the Silver Arrow next year, the power unit advantage Mercedes has will outweigh any aerodynamic deficit, particularly to the RB13, the new car might have.
Ricciardo has even said himself he expects the Brackley-based team to remain the best on the grid though those comments could be taken as part of the early mind games as well as tempering expectations.
But if he wanted to guarantee involvement in the championship battle next year, the four-time Grand Prix winner would still have been better off trying to make the move to Mercedes.
He would be FASTER than Lewis Hamilton…
Controversial opinion alert! But it’s true. Over the past three years, when Mercedes have been dominating everything, Ricciardo has arguably been the best driver on the grid, particularly in 2014 and at times in 2016.
He was even named Autosport’s top driver for this year and right now, Lewis Hamilton is a wounded champion.
The Briton was beaten was Nico Rosberg, a driver who many still feel is slower on outright pace than him and at times, when the chips were down, it seemed like an F1 racetrack was the last place he wanted to be.
It will be interesting to see which Hamilton turns up in Melbourne for the first race of 2017. Will it be the guy who feels the need to prove himself after losing his crown and was unbeatable in 2015 or will he still be uncomfortable and perhaps not be as motivated?
…but will he be faster than Max?
This is the big one in my opinion. This year, Verstappen’s promotion to Red Bull was still a little premature as he showed at times, but even Daniel had to admit the Dutchman made him improve and has pushed him on as a driver.
The thing is, when does he plateau? When does Max’s abilities and talent as a driver reach a level Ricciardo can’t match? Could that be next year with another winter of experience and maturity?
Maybe at the start of the season Ricciardo can maintain the upper hand but over the course of the year and beyond most feel it’s only a matter of time until Verstappen becomes the No. 1 at Red Bull.
Is the Red Bull hierarchy among them?
It’s well-known that Verstappen is the prized asset of the Red Bull programme. Given the amount of untapped potential the 19-year-old still has, do Helmut Marko and Christian Horner subscribe to the motion that Ricciardo won’t be the long-term team leader?
If so, given the opportunity that Mercedes would have offered, if Daniel has any inkling that the team will favour Verstappen over him in the long term, he should have looked to maximise the chance that has presented itself.
Future alternatives
We know that Ricciardo will be a Red Bull driver in 2017 and more than likely 2018, but what about after that? Surely, Verstappen will be one of, if not, the best driver on the grid so would the ‘honey badger’ want to stick around if he isn’t regularly beating his teammate?
Of course, the answer is no and seats at Ferrari and McLaren are a possibility as is potentially Mercedes, if Hamilton decides to move on. But do they offer the same potential that the Brackley team does now? Not really.
If Ricciardo had moved now he could have established himself alongside Hamilton and wouldn’t have to worry about Verstappen improving, particularly if the W08 is a faster car.
For sure a deal would have cost Mercedes an absolute fortune but you feel that of the three Red Bull drivers that have long-term futures, Verstappen, Carlos Sainz and Ricciardo, the Australian is the one they may have been more willing to let go.
For a while now, I’ve seen Ricciardo as making his name with Red Bull but achieving his success elsewhere and this could have been the move that made that view a reality.
Of course it won’t happen, Valtteri Bottas is instead being lined up to join Mercedes but if the fears over the rise of Verstappen do indeed come to fruition, then Ricciardo’s decision to not force through what he has perceived to be a less lucrative, less advantageous switch now may just become one of his biggest career regrets.
