If Lewis Hamilton is to claim a fourth Formula One championship this season he needs a race that is somewhat ‘out of the ordinary’.
The Briton is currently 19 points behind teammate Nico Rosberg with just two races to go in Brazil and Abu Dhabi.
In simple terms, the German needs one more win to secure a maiden title or 31 points and in a Mercedes, either of those scenarios is very likely.
That’s because, while the gap between the Silver Arrows and their rivals has come down significantly this year, a third of Mercedes’ wins have been one-two finishes, including at the last two.
tAround Interlagos and Yas Marina you wouldn’t expect any kind of incredible drop-off in performance from the team so getting a Red Bull or Ferrari between Hamilton and Rosberg would require something unexpected.
That something might be a reliability failure, of which there have been a few, an extreme tyre scenario which varies strategies, ala Singapore, or the weather, though only two races have seen rain in 2016.
Of those three scenarios, only poor reliability is realistically possible in Abu Dhabi. A wet day in the Middle East in rarer than a sunny day in England and the 90-degree nature of many of the corners at Yas Marina mean tyre wear is not usually an issue.
As a result, because you can’t rely on a mechanical issue, does that mean Brazil is really Hamilton’s last chance saloon?
We all know the history the South American country has had in deciding world titles, whether it be Fernando Alonso’s two triumphs, Kimi Raikkonen in 2007, the two Brits in ’08 and ’09 and Sebastian Vettel in 2012.
Already there is the overhanging threat of rain in Sao Paulo and the punishing middle sector could create an interesting tyre strategy dilemma with most teams stocking up on the soft compound Pirellis, which are the least durable on offer for this weekend.
Of course, even if Rosberg was to finish second behind Hamilton in Brazil there would still be a job to complete in the season finale.
Should the world champion finally break his much-documented duck, having never won the race in Sao Paulo, his teammate would have to finish on the podium at Yas Marina to be guaranteed the title.
That, however, hasn’t always been easy. Let’s not forget the craziness back in 2012 when Vettel started at the back and Rosberg was wiped out by Narain Karthikeyan.
Then there was 2014 when a mechanical issue did strike his Mercedes ending his championship hopes.
So plenty can still happen in the final chapter of this season, but such is the aura that surrounds the cauldron known as Interlagos, if Rosberg can fly back to Europe on Monday simply without having a disaster, he’ll probably have a smile just as wide as if he was to leave as champion.
