Because we’re so early into the season, qualifying and race result forecasts will take a couple more races to have the same accuracy you expected at the end of last year, and, therefore, are absent. Reason being the tyre rules and tyre regulations have changed so there is almost no historical data to compare to.
Mercedes didn’t run the medium tyre but were fastest with the soft and supersoft. Ferrari (or, at least, Vettel) could challenge the Silver Arrows on the soft tyres but the German’s supersoft was less convincing even before his “off” after the final turn. Kimi Raikkonen completed a long run early in the session on the medium compound and was 2.5 seconds off his teammate’s benchmark at the time.
Vandoorne closed the gap to Button to under a second. On supersoft tyres, the McLaren came alive going three seconds faster than on the medium compound and 2.2 seconds faster than the soft compound. Button finished only behind the Mercedes’ in P3.
Manor are the surprise of the session. Wehrlein on the soft tyre finished just 2.9 seconds off Rosberg’s supersoft time and only 1.7 seconds behind P3. To put that into perspective, Toro Rosso found 1.6 seconds by putting the supersoft tyre on. So, could Manor qualify in the top 10? I don’t believe so because historically, Manor are the team that go “balls out” on Friday. Here’s the “FP2 to Qualifying time average multiplier” for each team in 2015:
But still, I would be disappointed not to see Pascal in the second round of qualifying. I’m rooting for you, Pascal!
Thankfully FP2 was dry so long runs were on the agenda. Supersoft runs were lasting mostly in the frame of 5-10 laps. There were a couple of virtual safety cars towards the end of the session because of debris from Grosjean’s front wing and Ferrari’s mishap.
Combining the times of the supersoft runs and comparing them to Bottas’, this is how the “FP2 race” looks: (anomalies discounted)
I’ll have what Carlos Sainz Jr. is having because that was outstanding. Overtook Rosberg on lap 3 and soared to victory. Verstappen in the other Toro Rosso also impresses but laps one and four prevent him from pulling away from Bottas as much as his teammate. The Mercedes’ are best of the rest and Vettel catches Hamilton by lap 6.
The mid-field fight is close. Really close. Red Bull and Force India are inseparable. At Williams, it seems as though they are preparing for two supersoft stints in the race – fielding their drivers with differing fuel loads in FP2 to simulate the wear in the respective stages of the race.
Palmer was either told to go long, or the Renault lacks pace. They were just as fast as Force India on low fuel. Magnussen in the other Renault did not set a supersoft run, and neither did the Saubers or Manors.
Finally, Michael Schumacher set a 1:30.242 in qualifying in 2004. Using last year’s qualifying multipliers, Mercedes’ pole time is forecast to be 1:29.4, so tune in!
