It’s no secret that Mercedes have been the dominant force in Formula 1 ever since the start of 2014 which saw the cars have a greater use of hybrid technology compared with previous years. Mercedes won 16 of the 19 races in both 2014 and 2015 which amasses to a stunning 84.2% of wins in those two Formula 1 seasons. The very fact they hold the record for the most wins in a Formula 1 season and have the fifth best grand prix win percentage per season shows their level of dominance in the past two years. A dominance that eclipses Red Bull’s dominance from 2010 to 2013. It even challenges Ferrari’s dominance in the early 2000s and McLaren Honda’s glory years, but in particular 1988 with the near unbeatable driver pairing of Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost.
There are many reasons as to why I am sure that Mercedes will still be the team to beat in 2016. Toto Wolff’s confidence for his team next year, before anyone’s 2016 cars have been seen to the wider public, is certainly a clear sign of his views for the upcoming Formula 1 season. He has already spoken to the media about that Mercedes may have to “compromise” in order “to make [Formula 1] a little less predictable, give it a little more variability”. For a team principal to be openly talking about having to compromise for the benefit of the sport, suggests a firm belief that Mercedes’ pace compared to the rest of the field next year will be no different to the previous two years.
Toto Wolff’s comments on their own do mean very little, however when you compare Formula 1 in 2016 to when the previously mentioned Ferrari and McLaren-Honda had their dominant spells there is a clear difference. Before 2008, every Formula 1 team could do as much mid-season testing as they want, a luxury that isn’t present now. Teams also could do as much wind tunnel testing as they wanted, however, that has also been capped for cost-cutting measures brought in at the start of 2009.
The impact of unlimited testing was profound as it gave teams a chance to catch up on the front runners and is why teams haven’t dominated endlessly, Even Ferrari’s place at the top of the sport was cut in 2005 after a 5 year reign where they won all of the drivers’ and constructors’ titles from 2000 until 2004.
Unlike a few years ago it is impossible for a team such as Ferrari, which has the resources and financial capability to out-develop Mercedes and test more than them, to catch up simply because the rules do not allow for that as everyone is restricted in that sense. So if everyone is given less time to develop a quicker car than Mercedes, then the likelihood of it happening is tiny.
The final nail in the coffin for the hopes of the other teams to catch up with Mercedes (at least in my opinion) is that the cars are so cutting edge and complicated it’s more difficult than it has ever been this century for other Formula 1 teams to catch up. The ‘Energy Recovery System’, or ERS, in each of the cars’ power units is so new to the automotive industry that it’s only just being implemented into road cars such as Ferrari’s LaFerrari and the McLaren P1.
All electric cars as a whole is still a fresh idea in the motor industry. So when Honda, who has made electric cars such as the Fit EV and hybrids such as the latest Accord for a number of years now, is struggling to get even close to Renault, Ferrari and Mercedes after a year with these regulations is worrying to say the least.
The simple fact is that this new breed of Formula 1 cars are some of, if not, the most complicated Formula 1 cars ever built. The ERS system that is so ground-breaking and influential to each team’s pace (contributing roughly 160bhp to each cars’ approximate 800bhp figure)means that if you have done it right like Mercedes have it’s extremely difficult to then create an even better power unit with the technology still being in it’s infancy and all of the teams engineers’ still getting to grips with it. Mercedes have perfected this technology and as they have the best power unit with the best aerodynamic package around it, it’s such a big mountain for any of these teams to climb that I just don’t see it happening in the near future.
For the excitement and unpredictability we all desire as Formula 1 fans to be there in 2016, we need a battle at the top which I don’t see happening. That is of course unless Hamilton and Rosberg are closer together next year. I’m sure we will all agree though that we would rather see more than one team consistently battling for wins rather than just a silver arrow 1-2 almost every race.
That is where the 2017 regulations come into action as they could re-create a more level playing field that existed before 2009. In 2017 there are the proposals to completely revamp the technical regulations by increasing the speed of the cars by several seconds a lap.
The last technical change that was this radical was in 2009 which propelled Red Bull from a midfield team to a championship winner. Brawn were even able to win the 2009 drivers’ and constructors’ championship after writing off their 2008 season to focus on their 2009 campaign. Ferrari have already announced that they have pulled some of their resources away from their 2016 car to have an edge in 2017, and no doubt some other teams are seriously considering that route to move up the field in 2017. So while Mercedes domination is highly likely for 2016, that might not be the case for too much longer.
