There are just four races to go this season, and we still know nothing about the future of Red Bull’s two teams.
Dietrich Mateschitz has grown disillusioned with Formula One following Red Bull’s difficult progression into the hybrid era with the Renault power unit. Despite winning both championships four years in a row in the V8 era, the French manufacturer has not managed to produce a competitive package. Red Bull have slated the giant throughout the season, burning almost every bridge with the car manufacturer.
After managing just three wins in two years, Mateschitz has said that he will walk away from the sport – taking both Red Bull and Toro Rosso with him – if they are unable to secure a Mercedes or Ferrari 2016 spec engine.
The Problems
Both the Silver Arrows and the Prancing Horse are unwilling to supply the Milton Keynes-based outfit with up to date engines as neither want to give anything away to their rival.
It is believed that the Mercedes board have ruled out supplying either team with a power unit of any sort, whilst Ferrari are believed to have told Christian Horner that they will supply one of their teams – preferably Toro Rosso – with a 2015 spec unit.
There are several other issues too.
The FIA limit each engine supplier to a maximum of three customers.
Mercedes’ deal with Manor means that they have reached the limit – they will supply Williams, Force India and Manor with power units. Ferrari have one slot available, meaning that they could only supply one of Red Bull’s teams anyway.
Whilst the FIA could issue dispensation to Ferrari to allow them an extra slot, but that does not solve the second problem.
As mentioned earlier, we are now late into the season. It is impossible for Ferrari to get the staff and infrastructure in place to supply another two teams with brand new engines with so little time remaining.
What are the solutions?
Well, the most obvious choice for Dietrich Matechitz would be to put his money where his mouth is and pull out from the sport. Bernie Ecclestone, though, is doing everything possible to prevent that and, if he is to be believed, has come up with a solution.
Over the course of the Japanese GP weekend, Sky Sports believe that Toro Rosso agreed to use Ferrari’s 2015 spec power unit for next season, as team principal Franz Tost believe it to be better than anything Renault can offer. Toro Rosso were supplied by Ferrari from 2007-2013 in the V8 era.
That still begs the question of what happens to the senior team?
They have three options to remain in the sport.
The first is the most likely. Renault are trying everything they can to convince Bernie Ecclestone that they deserve historic status in the championship, which would give them access to an extra pot of prize money.
Despite the damaged relationship between the two sides, Ecclestone could use the status as a bargaining tool for Red Bull. Give Red Bull a power unit in exchange for getting the extra money. Red Bull, though, will have to swallow some pride and hang their tails between their legs.
A second option emerges from this. If Red Bull choose to back to Renault, do they keep them for the foreseeable future or on a short-term contract until the rumoured Volkswagen deal comes off?
VW’s interest has cooled recently following the emissions scandal, but Red Bull may be able to convince them to reignite their plan.
The final option, a long shot, would be to talk to Cosworth. The British tuners have been out of sport since 2013 but have designed a hybrid spec power unit.
With a backer, Cosworth would be willing to put the engine into production. The question is, would Red Bull take the risk of running a totally new power unit after seeing the way McLaren have struggled with Honda? I doubt it.
To summarise
It appears then, that Toro Rosso will be supplied with Ferrari’s 2015 spec engine and Red Bull with works Renault 2016 engines for next season. Whether this is what they had planned following their threats is unknown, but they will have to quite literally like it or lump it.
The whole paddock, though, hopes to see 22 cars on the grid next year.
