Singapore was one of Mercedes’ weakest qualifying circuits in 2014, with the top eight places on the grid separated by half-a-second.
In FP2 we saw Red Bull’s Daniel Kvyat take top spot, with the nearest Mercedes in fourth place. Singapore, being a high downforce circuit with accelerated tyre degradation, should help a nimble car like the Red Bull compensate for its lack of grunt in a straight line.
You can see that the laptimes increase quite dramatically over most of the stints. Massa, Button and Ricciardo look most comfortable with their target pace and show the most consistency in their runs. Massa’s Williams, however, looks to have far greater tyre degradation than Ricciardo’s Red Bull. Felipe’s times escalate nearly three-and-a-half seconds in the space of just 13 laps.
Worryingly, the prime tyre doesn’t look to have much more durability than the option. Kimi Raikkonen and Sergio Perez’s stints on the prime show the tyre wear outweighing the pace gained due to fuel weight loss. A three stop race is on the cards.
If the FP2 times were a race, Ricciardo leads a close battle with his old teammate, Vettel. Nico Rosberg has to drive slower on the option tyre than Kimi of the prime to make his tyres last. The prime looks the better race tyre for Singapore. Rosberg is a relatively huge distance behind the leader – 15 seconds after 10 laps. Mercedes haven’t looked this vulnerable in FP2 since Bahrain.
But to beat Mercedes you must ahead on the track. And the easiest way to do this would be to qualify ahead. The pace order on Friday is always different to Saturday because teams run different programmes, but over a season we can see a pattern developing in the average laptime multiplier going from FP2 to Qualifying:
This has been an effective method in the past few races, except for occasions where rain has reversed track evolution. Using these averages for unsupported races, the grid lines up as follows:
| Qualifying Rank | Team | Time |
| 1 | Mercedes | 01:44.4 |
| 2 | Ferrari | 01:44.7 |
| 3 | Red Bull | 01:45.0 |
| 4 | Force India | 01:45.2 |
| 5 | Williams | 01:45.4 |
| 6 | Toro Rosso | 01:45.7 |
| 7 | McLaren | 01:46.0 |
| 8 | Lotus | 01:46.4 |
| 9 | Sauber | 01:46.5 |
| 10 | Manor | 01:51.2 |
I’ll say again, the first eight positions on the grid last year were separated by 0.5 seconds. And using this average, the gap is even greater this year. It is not unusual to see a challenge from Ferrari fade away on Saturday this season. The average gap between Lewis and Nico this year is 0.3 seconds so a 1-2 should be threatened.
