Friday’s FP2 session at Monza was dry throughout with overcast skies for the majority of the session.
The order in qualifying can be obscured on Friday, because teams run different programmes, however, we can apply the average FP2 to Qualifying multiplier for a GP2/3 supported weekend to each team to gain a clearer look at the potential line-up after qualifying:
The predicted grid lines up as follows:
| Qualifying Rank | Team | Time |
| 1 | Mercedes | 01:22.5 |
| 2 | Williams | 01:23.3 |
| 3 | Ferrari | 01:23.5 |
| 4 | Force India | 01:23.8 |
| 5 | Lotus | 01:24.2 |
| 6 | Sauber | 01:24.9 |
| 7 | Red Bull | 01:24.9 |
| 8 | Toro Rosso | 01:25.0 |
| 9 | McLaren | 01:25.9 |
| 10 | Manor | 01:27.8 |
Unlike last time out at Spa, FP2’s running was uninterrupted and drivers were able to spend the last 40 minutes pounding in the laps.
The tyre selection for Monza is more aggressive than in 2014 where only one stop was made during the race. This year the teams are provided with the medium and soft compounds. The teams were keen to test whether a two-stop race would be faster this time round.
The following graph shows the laptimes (I have discounted short stints to ease viewing) of the drivers’ long runs. Dashed lines indicate the driver was on the prime compound:
We can see that overall, the tyre wear is slow for both compounds. Bottas and Sainz, on the option tyre, are 1.2 and 0.9 seconds slower after 18 laps. Meanwhile, Vettel and Kvyat, on the prime, are 0.2 and 0.0 seconds slower after 15 laps.
The race pace difference between these two compounds is not nearly the 0.8-1.2 seconds we saw on low fuel either. The prime is looking like the superior race tyre.
If these times were replicated on Sunday, the order as the stint progressed would look as follows:
Notice how Vettel catches Bottas after just 13 laps despite the lower ranked car for qualifying and equipped with the prime tyre. Massa on the prime cannot keep with Vettel suggesting that Williams also keep their car “turned down” for FP2 long runs. Expect a more competitive pace in the race from them.
The real surprise here are Lotus, who were hoping to challenge for another podium.
The most impressive run, aside from the dominant Mercedes duo, came from Carlos Sainz Jr, who kept 6th place in this stint from lap 8 onwards. He even started catching Valtteri which indicates some rather good tyre wear on the STR10. He’ll be one to watch – recovering from his grid penalty.
