Image courtesy of Manor F1, @ManorF1Team
No one likes being the party-pooper, and I don’t want to be one now. It’s great that Manor are resurrecting Marussia from the ashes of administration. But. Yep, there’s that but. Manor will be racing a slightly modified 2014 car against 2015 cars. Often, there isn’t much performance difference from year to year. The data this time, however, suggests otherwise.
The 107% rule has existed in F1 during various periods of the sport. While it’s easy to criticize the rule as trying to single-out smaller teams, the rule is, at its heart, aimed at safety. The logic is that, if you’re more than 7% off the pace of the fastest car, you’re not much more than a rolling chicane that will be constantly getting lapped by the leaders. In fact, GP2 cars are roughly around the 107% time in terms of their pace relative to F1. It’s a reasonable rule.
The 107% time is calculated off the fastest time set in Q1, not Q3. As the fastest cars often don’t fit the option tire during Q1, the calculated 107% time is usually more than 7% slower than the fastest time, giving the slower teams even more of a buffer.
In 2014, Manor (then using the Marussia name) were well within the 107% time at all the races they attempted. So what’s changed? The 2015 cars are faster than those from 2014. Much faster. Let’s do some calculations.
Lewis Hamilton’s pole time at the 2014 Spanish Grand Prix was 1:25.232. During preseason testing, Nico’s fastest time at the same circuit was 1:22.792. That’s a delta of 2.5 seconds. While it’s difficult to directly compare the two times because of different weather conditions, tire compounds, and many other unknowns, it’s likely the 2015 cars will get only faster. Often, teams estimate that they gain as much as 2 seconds in pace throughout the season from their in-season upgrades.
In short, a conservative estimate is that the 2015 cars are, at least, 2.5 seconds faster. Using the circuit in Spain as a control, we’ll assume that the pole time would be a 1:22.792. Last season, the delta between the fastest time in Q3 and Q1 was 1.5 seconds. Thus, we will assume the fastest Q1 time in 2015 would be 1:24.292. From that time, the 107% would be 1:30.192. The fastest time Max Chilton could muster in the 2014 Marussia was a 1:29.586, faster than the 107% time, but not by much.
Again, these calculations make many assumptions, ignoring many unknowns. However, these conservative estimates show that the 2014 Marussia will not compare well with the 2015 cars. If Manor cannot find performance gains in their 2014 chassis, they may find themselves outside the dreaded 107% time. While it’s unlikely the stewards in Melbourne will exclude Manor at the first race, if Manor cannot consistently better the 107% time in later races, the stewards will be faced with a difficult decision.
