Image courtesy of Red Bull Racing.
In parts 1 and 2, we examined the process necessary to take a front wing design concept to the race track. It’s a long process. A successful testing program can either expedite or delay these required development steps. Now that we have the first pre-season test behind us, let’s examine where each of the teams stand and where they might be going in their development programs.
Mercedes
With such a dominate package in 2014 with the W05, there was no need to go for revolution with the W06. All evidence suggests Mercedes understands this well and have focused their testing program on pushing the limits of reliability. When you have such a dominate car, there often aren’t many large areas that need improvement. Instead, you have to focus on minuscule weight-savings and running components at the maximum end of their operating limitations. Mercedes had a few reliability hiccups in Jerez, but that’s the only way you can truly know where those operating limits are. Lap time performance was of no interest to Mercedes at Jerez. Instead, they turned the most laps, 515, over 100 laps more than any other team. Mercedes are exactly where they want to be. Very ominous signs for the rest of the field.
Red Bull
I don’t know what got more attention, the camo livery or when they didn’t have a spare front wing after Daniil Kvyat damaged the one on the car. Red Bull claimed the camo livery was to prevent the other teams from taking pictures of the aerodynamic details of the RB11. The lack of spare parts, especially a major component such as a front wing (which tend to have short lifespans in testing a new car), indicates that Red Bull are behind schedule. While the camo livery got a lot of attention, it’s more likely to have been a product of the manufacturing process being so far behind schedule that they didn’t have time to paint the car and get it to Jerez on time. If the camo livery shows up in Barcelona, then maybe I’ll buy Red Bull’s explanation. As for Jerez, Red Bull managed only 165 laps (the second fewest) and were down more than 10 km/h from Mercedes in the speed trap. While Red Bull may still have the most elegant aerodynamic design, there are no indications from Jerez that Renault have closed the gap to Mercedes.
Williams
Towards the end of 2014, the FW36 was the only package able to challenge the W05. Williams could come within a few tenths of Mercedes in qualifying but were still around a second a lap adrift in the races. Williams have been relatively quiet during the offseason and preseason testing. The FW37 shows some changes that should yield improvements over the FW36. They turned a middle-of-the-pack number of laps at Jerez. They turned competitive times and matched Mercedes in the speed trap. Williams look to be on pace with their program, but still face the uphill battle of being a customer to Mercedes. Can a customer team outpace the works team?
Ferrari
The more things change in Maranello, the more they stay the same. The SF-15T clocked the fastest lap times seen in Jerez. Kimi Raikkonen says the car feels much better than the F-14T. That all sounds optimistic, except for the fact that the other team heading the top of the time sheets was Ferrari-powered Sauber. While that should be reason to rejoice for the Tifosi, all the evidence points to both Ferrari and Sauber choosing to go for headlines as opposed to sticking to a strict testing program. The speed trap numbers are telling. Both Sauber and Ferrari were significantly slower than the Mercedes-powered cars of Mercedes, Williams, and Lotus. Worse for Ferrari is that the SF-15T was slower in a straight-line than the Sauber. Straight-line speed was one of the biggest shortcomings of the F-14T. Again, the more things change in Maranello, the more they stay the same.
McLaren
Well, it wasn’t a total disaster. It wasn’t good either. Only 79 laps and 7 seconds a lap off the pace. Honda needed the MP4-30 to turn laps and lots of them. It didn’t. McLaren have been extremely confident in their simulation tools, and now they’re going to need them. The only people who know where the MP4-30 stands is McLaren-Honda. It’s possible McLaren are relying on their simulators for performance evaluation, and they are unconcerned with being 7 seconds off the pace. At least, I’m sure that’s what the Honda board of directors are hoping.
Force India
This one is easy, they did not show up! They say it’s because the 2015 car isn’t ready. I believe that. Some speculate that their 2015 challenger is so far behind schedule, they won’t make Melbourne. The team strongly deny this level of crisis, but you never know in F1. No matter how Force India try to spin it, they are behind schedule, badly. Unfortunately, 2015 will likely be a step backwards for Force India.
Toro Rosso
Middle-of-the-pack laps, lap times, and trap speeds. Nothing too exciting right? Well, it should be noted they turned more laps than Red Bull (353 to 165), turned marginally quicker laps, and were faster in a straight-line. While I don’t expect Toro Rosso to outpace Red Bull this season, James Key’s cars regularly punched above their weight at Sauber. Toro Rosso could be surprisingly near Red Bull in 2015.
Lotus
Anything would be better for Lotus than 2014. Having the best engine on the grid will help. On the other hand, there has been an ongoing exodus of technical staff from Lotus for a few seasons. The question becomes do they still have the technical depth to compete at the top of F1. Rumors of insolvency at Lotus never seem to go away.
Sauber
The only team to have a worse 2014 than Lotus. I’m sure the quick lap times seen in Jerez were good for team morale, but the evidence isn’t there to their legitimacy. At least the new car is colourful.
In Barcelona, expect the teams to gradually migrate to performance evaluation. Mercedes, on the other hand, appear very confident in the W06. So confident, we may not see its true pace until Q3 in Melbourne.
