In August this year, I wrote a piece on ‘silly season’ in Formula One where all the teams and drivers are in talks with each other in order to secure their driver line ups for the next season and beyond. During this period, we did see some (well in my opinion), quite amazing rumours that have been circulating around the paddock ranging from Max Chilton being linked to Force India for the second consecutive year running to Johnny Cecotto apparently signing for Lotus.
At the end of that article I posed myself this question; how many of my predictions will be correct at the end of the year? So let’s see how many of my predictions in August on the 2015 driver line up where correct. Read on…
Mercedes
Current drivers: Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg
Prediction: Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg
Drivers changed: No
With Mercedes currently dominating the sport in the dominant fashion that they are at the moment, I do not feel that Mercedes will want to change the driver pairing they have and why should they?
They have demonstrated that the partnership Hamilton and Rosberg might be fiery at times, but it is an equal partnership and a partnership that brings out the best in the team and both of its drivers respectfully and also competitively while fighting for the championship.
With Rosberg having already signed a “multi-year” deal to stay with the Mercedes team that was announced at the German Grand Prix and Hamilton contracted until the end of next season even though Hamilton has opened talks with the Mercedes team to extend his contract, I do not see the team getting rid of this partnership for the new few seasons; unless either of their drivers receive a better offer. And I just don’t see that happening.
Red Bull
Current drivers: Sebastian Vettel and Daniel Ricciardo
Prediction: Sebastian Vettel and Daniel Ricciardo
Drivers Changed: Yes
With Red Bull quite clearly being the second best team behind the Mercedes team this season, I felt that the partnership between Vettel and Ricciardo was going to remain for the 2015 season.
However, this hasn’t been the case with the news during the Japanese Grand Prix weekend that Sebastian Vettel would be leaving Red Bull at the end of the season to partner Kimi Raikkonen starting from 2015. Straight away, the Red Bull team promoted Toro Rosso rookie Daniil Kvyat to partner Daniel Ricciardo for next season after some impressive performances in the first half of the season.
With Red Bull’s 2015 line up being a mixture of youth, promise and talent alongside experience and talent, Ricciardo and Kvyat could be the surprise of next season; provided that Red Bull and Renault provide them with the competitive car they need to show why they was signed to the team in the first place.
Williams
Current drivers: Felipe Massa and Valtteri Bottas
Prediction: Felipe Massa and Valtteri Bottas
Drivers Changed: No
After Williams retained Valtteri Bottas and signing Felipe Massa for Ferrari for this season, it would seem that the partnership has been fruitful and has allowed Williams to challenge at the front of the grid and for strong points finishes at last. And as I predicted, the driver line up has not changed at Williams for 2015.
With Massa signing for Williams on a “multi-year” deal until it is rumoured until the end of the 2016 season, I feel that Massa will bow out of the sport then unless Williams decide that they wish to terminate the deal earlier. Meanwhile, this season has saw Bottas showing why he has been retained with. With interest ever increasing in Bottas, will Bottas be tempted to change ship and join a team such as Lotus who have in the past indicated an interest in him? I feel that if Bottas continues to improve next season, Bottas might be tempted if he gets the call for 2016.
Even though Williams will stay the same for the 2015 season, changes could be afloat in 2016 for the team if Bottas continues to improve at the rate he is currently and if Massa decides to retire from the sport.
Ferrari
Current drivers: Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen
Prediction: Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen
Drivers Changed: Yes
With all eyes focusing on Ferrari and their lack of performance so far this season, there is no questions that many pundits and fans have turned their attentions towards Ferrari’s driver line up for 2015 and who will be driving for them next year. In August, I believed that Ferrari will remain with their current line up until the end of 2015 and will make a change in 2016.
However, we was all surprised when it was announced that Sebastian Vettel would be joining Kimi Raikkonen at the team in 2015 alongside Fernando Alonso would be leaving the team after five years service after many pundits and fans believed that Raikkonen’s future especially in the team was looking shaky especially after recent interviews he has given to the media during this period.
Even though I predicted there would be no change at Ferrari for 2015 and I would be surprised if the team decided to replace either driver a year earlier than I think they should do, it does make sense that Ferrari decided to approach Vettel and to keep Raikkonen for at least another season. But all eyes will be upon this pairing heading into 2015 alongside watching out for Ferrari’s performances on the track as well.
McLaren
Current drivers: Jenson Button and Kevin Magnussen
Prediction: Unsure
Drivers Changed: Yes
With Jenson Button at McLaren until the end of the year and with McLaren signing rookie Kevin Magnussen from Formula Renault 3.5 this season as reigning champion, it would appear that a change was needed at McLaren for this season. I was unsure about if Button or Magnussen will stay at the team for next season.
But with the announcement last week that Button would be retained for next season to partner Fernando Alonso, with Kevin Magnussen being demoted to test and reserve driver, it is clear that McLaren did indeed looked at every “viable option” with their driver line up (even if I don’t agree with the way it was handled in the press and the media) and they attracted a world class driver such as Alonso which was their aim.
But I feel that McLaren’s line up for 2015 isn’t a bad thing even if I have slight doubts. The line up provides them with two equally talented drivers that will provide them with consistency and also using Button’s experience at Honda would be very handy as Honda and McLaren settle into their first season together.
Force India
Current drivers: Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez
Prediction: Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez
Drivers Changed: No
After Force India resigned Nico Hulkenberg back to the team and securing the services of Sergio Perez, the future has been looking incredibly bright for the team and my prediction was correct and Force India’s driver line up is not changing as we go into the 2015 season.
This season has seen the partnership of Hulkenberg and Perez proving successful as Hulkenberg has managed to finish every race but one consistently in the points, whereas Perez has had suffered some bad luck but has managed to secure their second podium in their history at Bahrain.
With Force India’s Team Principal Vijay Mallya and their Chief Operating Officer Otmar Szafnauer publically stating over the past few months that they were very happy with their current driver line up of Hulkenberg and Perez, this will only bring them continuity and consistency heading into the 2015 season with one of the strongest and exciting line ups of the year.
Toro Rosso
Current drivers: Jean-Eric Vergne and Daniil Kvyat
Prediction: Daniil Kvyat and Carlos Sainz Jr
Drivers Changed: Yes
The partnership of Vergne and Kvyat has been one of surprise this season. With Kyvat being the more consistent driver and scoring more points than Vergne in the first half of the season, he has shown that he is a potential talent of the future. Meanwhile, Vergne has had bad luck and reliability issues that have affected his performances and in the second half of the season, Vergne bounced back and showed that consistency and experience is the key to beating your team mate.
In regards to 2015, I did predict that Kvyat has earned already the right to be there next season. He showed what he can do in the car and I believe that he has a lot of potential and will only get better and I also felt strongly Vergne will not be retained for next season.
And my prediction did prove correct. Vergne was firstly shown the door by the Toro Rosso team by signing young rookie Max Verstappen from Formula 3. With the promotion of Daniil Kvyat to Red Bull for 2015, Vergne appeared to have a second chance of retaining his seat with the team for a fourth season.
But Toro Rosso has decided to go for a fresh and young driver line up that will push each other. So for 2015, the partnership of Verstappen and Sainz Jr has the potential to shock and surprise next season; provided they have the car underneath them and both driver are given time to settle into the sport as quickly as possible.
Lotus
Current drivers: Romain Grosjean and Pastor Maldonado
Prediction: Unsure
Drivers Changed: No
The partnership of Grosjean and Maldonado this season has shown that Grosjean has been able to outperform Maldonado consistently, even if Maldonado has shown small signs of improvement in the last few races.
With Maldonado already securing his future with Lotus until the end of the 2016 it is to be believed, the speculation surrounding Grosjean was ever present in the latter stages of the season. At that stage, I was unsure of what Lotus’ line up would be given that McLaren were believed to have approached Grosjean and young drivers such as Esteban Ocon, Jolyon Palmer and Johnny Cecotto being linked to the team.
With Grosjean admitting to the media that he was looking into all the options he has, Grosjean finally announced (even though he did it early on Twitter and had to delete his tweet) that he was staying with the team after they convinced him that they have the resources to massively improve next year (aka switching to Mercedes power).
But I do feel even though Grosjean is staying at Lotus until the end of next season and could still move to another team if he got the call in 2016 and also if the car is competitive enough for him. As for Maldonado, he’s just lucky to be in a seat for next season as I believe he has shown no signs of why he was signed to the team in the first place and needs to deliver next season or be shown the door.
Marussia
Current drivers: Jules Bianchi and Max Chilton
Prediction: Jules Bianchi and Max Chilton
With Marussia retaining Jules Bianchi and Max Chilton for a second season, Marussia needed to make sure that they started the season they way they ended in 2013 and keep tenth place ahead of their rivals Marussia.
Already this season, Marussia have improved and are miles ahead of Caterham. With the partnership of Bianchi and Chilton, they managed to secure two valuable points after Bianchi finished ninth at the Monaco Grand Prix. Also, they have took the opportunities to get themselves out of Q1 when it has been presented to them unlike their rivals.
With the recent events of the past few months, the future of the Marussia team appears to be over despite their ninth place finish in Monaco with Jules Bianchi which secured them ninth in the Constructors Championship. This is due to Marussia going into administration before the final three races of the season and failing to secure further investment to secure its future.
And that is such a shame as after all; this is a team that showed this season an improvement from the 2013 season and also highlighted just how far ahead they were ahead of their rivals Caterham and all thanks to a young, talented driver who took the opportunity to deliver when it was presented to him.
Sauber
Current drivers: Adrian Sutil and Esteban Guiterrez
Prediction: Esteban Gutierrez and Gideo van der Garde
Drivers Changed: Yes
This season has seen Sauber gone backwards and struggle to even get out of Q1 even mind fighting for points. Sauber have struggled since pre-season with issues such as brakes and weight that have contributed to their lack of form. This season has been them fail to score any points for the first time since their debut in 1993.
With the partnership of Sutil and Guiterrez, Guiterrez and Sutil have matched each other in a car that was never fighting for track positions or rarely ever seen on the track unless they were involved in an incident. As I predicted in August , I saw Guiterrez being retained for a third season after showing much signs of improvement in a car that is one of the most uncompetitive cars on the grid, even if his financial backing is the only reason for him staying there alongside the return of Mexico to the calendar in 2015.
But I did also predict Sutil would be leaving the sport at the end of the season as I feel he has had his chances in the sport and has failed to deliver. For 2015, I saw Sauber retaining Guiterrez and Van der Garde taking over Sutil’s seat and using his experience during his time with the team and also with Caterham to lead Sauber forward next year where they simply have got to deliver.
However, Sauber have decided to part ways with Gutierrez, Sutil, van der Garde and Sirotkin. 2015 sees Sauber signing former Caterham driver Marcus Ericsson and Williams reserve driver and GP2 driver Felipe Nasr for next season. With such a young driver line up, I think it will be difficult for Sauber to improve from where they are currently.
Caterham
Current drivers: Kamui Kobayashi and Marcus Ericsson
Prediction: Carlos Sainz Jr and Will Stevens
This season has seen Caterham gone even further backwards and struggle to even get out of Q1 even mind fighting for points. The partnership of Kobayashi and Ericsson has not been what they or the team expected. With both drivers struggling to drive the car and then suffering from bad luck, mistakes or reliability, I predicted that their futures within the Caterham team looked uncertain.
But Marcus Ericsson has now left the team to join Sauber for 2015, with the future of Kamui Kobayashi looking very uncertain indeed and may have to look at other options of motorsport for next season.
As it stands at the moment, Caterham’s future is up in the air due to the fact that they like Marussia also entered administration before the final three races of the season. However, due to a crowdfunding project, Caterham did race in the final race of the season in Abu Dhabi which has led to the administrators talking to a few interested parties about taking over the team.
I would say if Caterham are able to get the investment to make the 2015 season, that would be an achievement in itself. But the odds day by day are looking increasingly unlikely that new owners or investors will be found and it’s hard to predict if they made the grid in 2015 who their drivers would be.
Overall, it would appear that my predictions on the 2015 driver line up that I made in August were a mixed bag. It is clear that some teams either did retain both of their drivers or at least one of them for the 2015 season. But for some teams it was clear either one driver or both drivers could be leaving at the end of the season.
But I would have to say that the biggest surprise of the year was Sebastian Vettel leaving Red Bull to join Ferrari in 2015. Even though Vettel has stated in the past that he would be open to joining the team in the near future, I don’t think any of us would predict just how soon this would be. And you have to give credit to Vettel for making a bold and calculated risk to leave Red Bull and join Ferrari in their challenge to regain them back to the front of the grid once again.
Once again, I will make two predictions on which driver line up I think will be most successful and which one will not be successful in 2015. The driver line up I think will be most successful has to be Mercedes once again who are for sure in the best position possible. And the driver line up I feel will not be most successful as to be Sauber’s who have a lot to prove and a hell of a lot of work to do to get back into the midfield once again.
But I will leave this with you all; which driver line up do you feel will or will not be successful in 2015? I’d love to hear your thoughts!
